BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Osprey in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

14×Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Osprey In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.05–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.05–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.040.14
20260.090.040.14
20270.090.040.14
20280.090.050.14
20290.100.050.14

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Osprey in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine GroveALABAMA92024
GuntersvilleALABAMA52017
StevensonALABAMA52024
Signal MtnTENNESSEE42024
GreensportALABAMA32024
OakmanGEORGIA32024
LakeviewALABAMA22024
RiversideALABAMA22012
BetulaPENNSYLVANIA22022
Russell CityPENNSYLVANIA22023
Pocono SummitPENNSYLVANIA22022
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA22011
MarsPENNSYLVANIA22023
Mt OliveALABAMA11997
MaytownALABAMA12023
TalladegaALABAMA12021
CartersvilleGEORGIA12016
Mountain CtyGEORGIA12010
WilliamsportMARYLAND12024
HopeNEW-JERSEY11986
BloomsburyNEW-JERSEY12010
High PointNEW-JERSEY12000
RamseysburgNEW-JERSEY12022
WestbrookvleNEW-YORK12017
OneontaNEW-YORK11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.