BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Osprey In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionBirds of prey

Osprey in Boreal Hardwood Transition has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+62%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has risen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Osprey In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.03–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.03–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.020.23
20270.130.030.23
20280.130.030.23
20290.130.030.23
20300.130.030.23

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Osprey in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FlambeauWISCONSIN42025
GilchristMICHIGAN32000
BemidjiMINNESOTA31968
GilmanWISCONSIN31992
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN22010
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA22015
MahtowaMINNESOTA22011
CouderayWISCONSIN22019
BerglandMICHIGAN11990
IshpemingMICHIGAN11985
MuskallongeMICHIGAN12018
TahquamenonMICHIGAN11995
Lake CityMICHIGAN12010
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN11991
SkeelsMICHIGAN11981
Sand LakeMICHIGAN11994
Imp LakeMICHIGAN11992
Seney NwrMICHIGAN12025
CromwellMINNESOTA12023
Mille LacsMINNESOTA12018
BackusMINNESOTA11986
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA12006
Hart LakeMINNESOTA12009
Island LakeMINNESOTA11983
CohassetMINNESOTA12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.