BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGeneralists

Osprey in Piedmont has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1983.

13×Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Piedmont: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Osprey In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Piedmont is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.12–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Piedmont is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.12–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.100.26
20260.180.100.26
20270.190.110.27
20280.190.110.27
20290.200.120.28

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Osprey in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA52024
SiloamGEORGIA32024
Curry HillGEORGIA32019
EarltonMARYLAND32024
BrodnaxVIRGINIA32024
WashingtonGEORGIA22021
Van BibberMARYLAND22013
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA22024
ForsythGEORGIA12024
MaxeysGEORGIA12017
JulietteGEORGIA12014
WhitesburgGEORGIA12017
Lincolnton 2GEORGIA12019
Carrs StationGEORGIA12024
Rock BranchGEORGIA12024
OlneyMARYLAND12024
FowblesburgMARYLAND11983
Upper XrdsMARYLAND12008
TheodoreMARYLAND12013
WheatonMARYLAND12012
MadonnaMARYLAND12014
Bald FriarMARYLAND11996
SandbrookNEW-JERSEY12023
CrotonNEW-JERSEY11986
OakboroNORTH-CAROLINA12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.