BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Osprey In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaBirds of prey

Osprey in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 412% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+412%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 412% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Osprey In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.2–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.2–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.02.13.8
20273.02.13.9
20283.02.13.9
20293.12.24.0
20303.12.24.0

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Osprey in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ScottsmoorFLORIDA322025
Winter GardnFLORIDA312019
Vero BeachFLORIDA162022
Holey LandFLORIDA152025
Weaver StnFLORIDA122019
Punta GordaFLORIDA92015
SandyFLORIDA82015
ShawanoFLORIDA72002
Merritt IslFLORIDA72011
ChildsFLORIDA62022
Citrus ParkFLORIDA62025
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA62025
AripekaFLORIDA52025
Mabel 2FLORIDA52025
Wildernes PkFLORIDA52014
Plantation KFLORIDA42004
ArbuckleFLORIDA42021
Lake BuffumFLORIDA42024
St AugustineFLORIDA32025
MabelFLORIDA32011
KenansvilleFLORIDA32025
KissimmeeFLORIDA32025
St LucieFLORIDA32025
Key LargoFLORIDA31991
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA32021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.