BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Osprey In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestBirds of prey

Osprey in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 255% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+255%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 255% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Osprey In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.60 (95% range 0.27–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–0.9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.60 (95% range 0.27–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.590.260.92
20270.590.260.92
20280.590.260.92
20290.590.270.92
20300.600.270.93

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Osprey in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Redwood N.P.CALIFORNIA152010
WedderburnOREGON132025
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA122018
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA62019
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA42013
WinberryOREGON42023
DaytonOREGON42025
South ElmaWASHINGTON42024
PackwoodWASHINGTON42018
ElktonOREGON32025
ClearwaterOREGON32025
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON32025
Sheep MtnALASKA22001
HullvilleCALIFORNIA22018
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA22007
OrleansCALIFORNIA22011
TualatinOREGON22024
UmpquaOREGON22023
GarfieldOREGON22022
SvensenOREGON21992
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON22025
ScappooseOREGON22025
OzetteWASHINGTON22006
TaholahWASHINGTON22022
CougarWASHINGTON22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.