BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Osprey in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+202%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Osprey In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 133% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.26–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+133%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–0.9295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 133% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.26–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.580.250.91
20260.580.250.91
20270.580.250.92
20280.590.250.92
20290.590.260.92

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Osprey in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Redwood N.P.CALIFORNIA152010
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA122018
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA62019
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA42013
WinberryOREGON42023
ScappooseOREGON42023
South ElmaWASHINGTON42024
PackwoodWASHINGTON42018
Secret ValOREGON32022
Sheep MtnALASKA22001
HullvilleCALIFORNIA22018
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA22007
OrleansCALIFORNIA22011
TualatinOREGON22024
UmpquaOREGON22023
WedderburnOREGON22024
DaytonOREGON22024
GarfieldOREGON22022
SvensenOREGON21992
OzetteWASHINGTON22006
TaholahWASHINGTON22022
Bunker HillWASHINGTON22022
CougarWASHINGTON22023
EverettWASHINGTON22015
MukilteoWASHINGTON22006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.