BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Osprey in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 559% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+559%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 559% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

Osprey In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.10–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.10–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.090.17
20260.130.090.17
20270.140.100.18
20280.140.100.18
20290.140.100.18

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Osprey in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KamasUTAH62024
Navajo LakeUTAH52023
AspenCOLORADO32024
Lake City 2COLORADO22024
Dixie NfUTAH22024
HannaUTAH22015
Logan CanyonUTAH22016
Bryce CanyonUTAH22012
Fox ParkWYOMING22022
HarmonyCOLORADO12023
Lost LakeCOLORADO12019
TarryallCOLORADO12019
CortezCOLORADO11988
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO12016
De BequeCOLORADO12024
ThomasvilleCOLORADO12017
Groundhog RsCOLORADO12021
PiedraCOLORADO12015
Steamboat L.COLORADO12014
AngoraCOLORADO12022
Gold HillCOLORADO12006
Rifle FallsCOLORADO12017
Rollins PassCOLORADO12021
Cortez 2COLORADO12014
Gold Hill 2COLORADO12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.