BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Generalists

Osprey in BCR 4 has surged: up 291% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+291%Since 1996
16Routes In Region
30Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Osprey has surged in BCR 4: up 291% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.09–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029
0.23Projected 2029 index
0.09–0.3795% range
±46.8%Backtest error
19872029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.200.070.34
20260.210.070.35
20270.210.080.35
20280.220.080.36
20290.230.090.37

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Osprey in BCR 4.
Mud RiverALASKA52024
Kanuti LakeALASKA52024
Birch LakeALASKA22023
Burma RoadALASKA22011
Unalakleet RiverALASKA22024
Hather CreekALASKA22024
Anvik RiverALASKA22024
NorthwayALASKA12018
WillowALASKA12018
Lake LouiseALASKA12003
Nicholai SlALASKA12008
PetersvilleALASKA11987
ColdfootALASKA12022
Kanuti CanynALASKA12023
Porcupine R.ALASKA12001
Kobuk River (Short)ALASKA11991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.