BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Pennsylvania has surged: up 520% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+520%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Pennsylvania: up 520% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.2–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.2–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.41.11.8
20261.51.11.8
20271.51.21.8
20281.51.21.8
20291.51.21.9

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ferris Crnrs620241966
Jacobus620241986
Peru Mills520241973
Collegeville520241983
Mount Joy520241988
Bendersville520241990
Leola520241998
Arnot420241987
Little Marsh420221969
Williamsburg420231988
Middletown420241990
Brunnerville420091969
Doe Run420211979
West Grove419961974
Sugar Grove420241984
Doylesburg420182009
Mt Gretna 2420222001
Brunnerville 2420242010
Shrewsbury420221992
Harmonsburg320221971
Millville320241974
Parkwood320231967
Ryde320051974
Mifflintown320241973
Quakertown319891978

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.