BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Vermont has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-54%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has fallen sharply in Vermont: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Vermont is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Vermont is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.26
20260.110.000.25
20270.100.000.25
20280.100.000.25
20290.100.000.25

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
S Reading220191966
S Wallingfrd220221974
Marlboro119781978
North Pownal120111971
Stratton120101998
Landgrove119891989
Gaysville120071978
Post Mills120181969
Shaftsbury120231966
W Rutland120191969
St Johnsbury120222009
Northfld Fls120042002
Middlesex119811980
East Calais120001973
Newbury119861986
Hardwick119921977
Greensboro120181976
Fletcher120211969
Hinesburg119911978
Colchester120241992
Grand Isle120101990
Stowe119971989
Bristol119991996

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.