BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Maryland

All statesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Maryland has surged: up 635% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+635%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Maryland: up 635% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Maryland is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 1.1–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Maryland is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 1.1–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.981.6
20261.31.01.6
20271.31.01.7
20281.41.01.7
20291.41.11.7

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Williamsport820241986
Emmitsburg720241976
Olney520241968
Harmony520171967
Earlton520242014
Madison420221966
Cokesbury420241969
Potomac Park320211970
Upper Xrds320081976
Cheltenham320011974
Millington320241968
Matthews320241966
Vindex220241980
Oldtown220231990
Bachman Mill220231972
Eklo220181977
Walnut220242004
Berlin220151980
La Plata220091984
Northeast220131978
Easton220211966
Vienna220231972
Jennings220221997
Green Ridge220221995
Piney Grove220241996

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.