BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Kentucky has surged: up 361% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+361%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Kentucky: up 361% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Kentucky is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.99–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.99–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Kentucky is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.99–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.921.9
20261.40.941.9
20271.50.952.0
20281.50.972.0
20291.50.992.0

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Keysburg420241968
Canton320241969
Sulphur Lick320241988
Kings Mtn320241972
Merrimac320241971
Gatewood320181967
Drakesboro320031971
Dixie320191971
Bays Fork320181999
Million 2320242008
Bardwell220011972
Pippa Passes219971995
Mckee220231968
Levee219821968
Hodgenville220031967
Kehoe 2220232006
Eastview220231975
Morganfield220232023
Apex220242006
Pleasurevill220231979
Bardwell 2220232006
Staffordsvil219961996
Beattyville 2220162012
Hodgenville 2220232010
Lebanon Junction220232001

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.