BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Michigan

All statesBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Michigan has surged: up 227% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+227%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Michigan: up 227% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Michigan is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.50–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.78Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Michigan is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.50–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.750.471.0
20270.760.481.0
20280.770.491.0
20290.780.491.1
20300.780.501.1

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bootjack620161994
Mottville420251968
North Branch319981974
Drayton Plns319771977
Deckerville320241984
Cohoctah320242021
Hartland319961993
New Buffalo320141992
Allegan Wma320191993
Cunard220161981
Lake City220151975
Traverse Cty219921980
Nashville220251969
Coopersville220251984
Galesburg220251973
Raco219901990
Riggsville220181972
Frederic219951982
Red Oak219951975
No Bradley220241994
Holt220251969
Adrian220161974
Juniata220241969
Tyre219961971
Pleasant Valley 2220242007

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.