BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Maine

All statesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Maine has surged: up 500% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+500%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Maine: up 500% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Maine is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.02–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Maine is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.02–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.010.24
20260.130.010.24
20270.130.010.24
20280.130.020.25
20290.130.020.25

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kittery Pt320242019
Big Twenty320021994
Weeks Brook320021996
Moose River219901990
Cornville220212021
Cape Neddick120242009
Westbrook120102010
Biddeford120031979
Northfield 2120162016
Turner120102010
Greenwood120231976
Reeds120241990
Otisfield Gr120142013
Hartford120222006
Manchester119931981
East Troy120182018
Heron Lake120021995
Brooks120132013
Castine120062006
Aurora119821982
Big Twenty 2120092009
Baker Lake 2120112010
Seboomook Lk120011981
Clayton Lake120081977
Lake Moxie120222022

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.