BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Arizona has surged: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+116%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Arizona: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.5 (95% range 1.4–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.5 (95% range 1.4–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.41.43.5
20262.51.43.5
20272.51.43.5
20282.51.43.5
20292.51.43.6

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ Pipe1120231990
Sunizona 21020242001
Sunizona719971969
San Simon620241974
Palo Verde620131992
Cutter620141992
Blue519901974
Dateland520241990
Lukeville519811975
Cactus Forest520241993
Pomerene420241968
Redington420231993
Mcneal420241992
Wickenburg420232017
Hope420091990
Cutter 2420182015
Bates Well420231995
Red Rock 2420242015
Wikieup320241992
Patagonia320241969
Alamo Res.320241992
Gila Bend320241995
Bartlett Res320241992
Red Rock320141993
Amado320221993

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.