BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Montana has surged: up 306% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+306%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Montana: up 306% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Montana is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.5–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Montana is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.5–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.42.7
20262.11.42.7
20272.11.52.8
20282.11.52.8
20292.21.52.8

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock1120241973
Polson1020241976
Pablo Res.1020241995
St Xavier720101984
East Glacier Park720242015
Church Hill720242017
Clyde Park720242018
Elliston620241970
St Mary520081970
Wise River520221995
St. Mary 2520242010
Willow Creek 2520241983
Savage420211980
Wolf Creek420222016
Miles City420242015
Kalispell320221975
Two Dot320241980
Ingomar320241989
Chestnut320241969
Beaverhead320241973
Whitlash320232009
Raynesford320182016
Jordan South320162016
Lindsay320242015
Philipsburg320242015

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.