BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Massachusetts has surged: up 990% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+990%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Massachusetts: up 990% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.24–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.24–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.660.201.1
20260.670.211.1
20270.680.221.1
20280.690.231.1
20290.700.241.1

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield520241970
Littleton420241988
Wellfleet 2420242017
E Dennis320191990
Maynard220221993
E Pepperell219871967
Belchertown220241971
Gay Head220242000
Cummington 2220242019
Chilmark119831971
Marion120241972
Wellfleet120051988
Prattville120091973
Brockton120191997
Newburyport120221983
N Oxford120221994
Princeton119721972
Warren120091970
S Barre120191973
N Orange120231984
Cummington120031969
Chesterfield120161968
Cheshire119941977
Pittsfield120091977
Sheffield120131972

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.