BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Connecticut has surged: up 397% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+397%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Connecticut: up 397% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Connecticut is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.55–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.55–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Connecticut is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.55–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.481.5
20261.00.501.6
20271.00.511.6
20281.10.531.6
20291.10.551.6

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Granby920241991
Greenwich320172006
Mystic220231976
Woodstock220041980
Westbrook220241981
Long Hill220101974
Southington220241975
E Hartland119891988
Buckingham120211966
Uncasville120241989
Willimantic120161981
No Woodbury120221980
Sherman120191973
Danbury120231977
Warren120111974
Mid Haddam120231974
New Hartford119871981
New Hartford120162015
Woodstock 2120242016
Warren 2120222016

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.