BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in New York

All statesBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in New York has surged: up 192% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+192%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in New York: up 192% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in New York is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.52–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in New York is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.52–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.790.511.1
20270.790.511.1
20280.790.511.1
20290.800.521.1
20300.800.521.1

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Huntington520231991
Castile520251967
Manorville420241971
Branchport420241967
Ballston Lk319951968
Whitney Pt320091970
Romulus319971968
Trumansburg320231973
Orleans320251968
Centerville320121970
Nashville320181970
Churchville320231968
Argyle320241969
Crescent320241998
Hauppauge220181990
Rhinebeck220241968
Middletown220111975
Austerlitz220241978
Laurens220231971
Corbettsvile220191976
Oneonta220251969
Dryden220251968
Macdougall220241969
Rushville220151968
Canadice L220251968

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.