BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in New York has surged: up 201% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+201%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in New York: up 201% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in New York is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.96 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.52–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in New York is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.96 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.52–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.780.511.1
20260.790.511.1
20270.790.511.1
20280.790.521.1
20290.800.521.1

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Orleans620241968
Huntington520231991
Manorville420241971
Branchport420241967
Castile420241967
Ballston Lk319951968
Whitney Pt320091970
Romulus319971968
Trumansburg320231973
Centerville320121970
Sheridan320241972
Nashville320181970
Churchville320231968
Argyle320241969
Naples320241973
Crescent320241998
Hauppauge220181990
Rhinebeck220241968
Middletown220111975
Austerlitz220241978
Meridale220241968
Laurens220231971
Corbettsvile220191976
Dryden220231968
Macdougall220241969

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.