BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in New Mexico has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+18%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-tailed Hawk in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in New Mexico is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.69–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in New Mexico is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.69–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.652.3
20271.50.662.4
20281.50.672.4
20291.50.682.4
20301.50.692.4

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Capitan Mtn.820171993
Variadero620211994
Mesilla620001992
La Plata 2620162014
Quemado419961992
Emory Pass420251993
Maxwell420251996
Farley320251980
Carrizozo320251968
Gallinas320251992
Bitter Lake320251994
Red Rock320251992
Engle319891979
Capulin319941993
Grenville220141976
Crownpoint219961969
Torreon220251979
La Cienega220181970
Pecos220171975
Horse Mtn220231969
Roswell220231968
Jornada220231979
Lakewood220191988
Counselor220251993
Rosebud220251994

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.