BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in New Mexico has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+5%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-tailed Hawk in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in New Mexico is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.73–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.73–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in New Mexico is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.73–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.682.4
20261.50.692.4
20271.60.712.4
20281.60.722.4
20291.60.732.4

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Capitan Mtn.820171993
Variadero620211994
Mesilla620001992
La Plata 2620162014
Sunshine Wll520241992
Ojo Sarco420241968
Floyd420231981
Cloudcroft420241977
Quemado419961992
Red Rock420241992
Logan420241982
Maxwell420241996
Bitter Lake320231994
Engle319891979
Laborcita 2320242024
Capulin319941993
Farley220241980
Grenville220141976
Crownpoint219961969
La Cienega220181970
Pecos220171975
Horse Mtn220231969
Roswell220231968
Jornada220231979
Lakewood220191988

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.