BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Tennessee has surged: up 234% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+234%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Tennessee: up 234% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Tennessee is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.79–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.79–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Tennessee is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.79–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.731.6
20261.20.741.6
20271.20.761.7
20281.20.781.7
20291.20.791.7

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield1120241966
Wrigley620221967
Lovell620191976
Corryton Rd620191986
Humboldt520241979
Belotes Bend520091967
Glen420241979
Trenton320101966
Peytonsville320241970
Silver Pt320211966
Union Hill320241969
Mt Olive320171988
Trace Collinwood320182015
Brownsville220241966
Big Sandy220241972
Silerton220241980
White House220191966
Allens Brdge220231971
Cornpone220241993
Newfound Gap220222022
Signal Mtn120241984
Tiptonville120231979
Pawpaw120121982
Moscow120211973
Tibbs120241966

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.