BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Tennessee has surged: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+170%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Tennessee: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Tennessee is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 0.80 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.78–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.78–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Tennessee is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 0.80 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.78–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.711.6
20271.20.731.6
20281.20.741.6
20291.20.761.7
20301.20.781.7

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield720251966
Wrigley620221967
Lovell620191976
Corryton Rd620191986
Belotes Bend520091967
Trenton320101966
Collinwood320251971
Peytonsville320241970
Silver Pt320211966
Union Hill320241969
Glen320251979
Mt Olive320171988
Trace Collinwood320182015
Brownsville220241966
Big Sandy220241972
Silerton220241980
Humboldt220251979
White House220191966
Allens Brdge220231971
Cornpone220241993
Newfound Gap220222022
Signal Mtn120241984
Tiptonville120251979
Pawpaw120121982
Moscow120211973

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.