BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in South Dakota has surged: up 185% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+185%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in South Dakota: up 185% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in South Dakota is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in South Dakota is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.992.3
20271.71.02.4
20281.71.02.4
20291.71.12.4
20301.81.12.4

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Isabel820151990
Chamberlain620111970
Pioneer620221994
Roubaix Lk419911973
Cedar Pass420251974
Reva420251985
Lodgepole420251997
Geddes320251988
Rockyford320251973
Volga320221970
Veblen320231967
Conde319841967
Long Lake320191970
Promise320151986
Ardmore320161977
Silver City320121992
White Lake220111968
Winner220251969
Rosebud220111967
Roswell220141967
Broadland220171977
Crow Creek220231975
Wilmot220251967
Britton220231972
Volunteer220151973

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.