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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Texas

All statesBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Texas has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+62%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
236Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has risen sharply in Texas: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Texas is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.98–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.98–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Texas is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.98–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.932.0
20271.50.942.0
20281.50.952.1
20291.50.972.1
20301.50.982.1

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Manor 2920252025
Katy820251992
Manor820242012
Panhandle820222011
Peach Creek719921967
Ft. Davis620232004
Paige620252015
Harper520251969
Ola520251967
Cornudas520181968
Walburg520251987
Silver520192004
Williams520251996
Rock Island420251988
Kosse420231969
Rhome420251967
Henrietta420221973
Comstock420251968
Hot Springs420191968
Kermit419941994
Carlos420251993
Decatur420211995
Marathon420252004
Easton 2420252014
La Pryor320171969

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.