BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Texas has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+76%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
235Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Texas: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Texas is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.0–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Texas is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.0–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.962.0
20261.50.972.1
20271.50.982.1
20281.51.002.1
20291.61.02.1

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Manor820242012
Panhandle820222011
Peach Creek719921967
Thornton 3720242019
Ft. Davis620232004
Longfellow520241968
Cornudas520181968
Floydada520222005
Silver520192004
Harper420241969
Kosse420231969
Henrietta420221973
Hot Springs420191968
Childress420241979
Kermit419941994
Decatur420211995
Paige420242015
La Pryor320171969
Arenosa Crk320241974
Boerne320181969
Lone Oak320221968
New Waverly320231974
Fitzhugh319821969
Valley Spgs320241972
Thornton319841968

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.