BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in North Carolina has surged: up 168% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+168%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in North Carolina: up 168% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in North Carolina is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 0.93 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.71–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.71–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in North Carolina is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 0.93 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.71–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.651.7
20271.20.671.7
20281.20.681.7
20291.20.691.7
20301.20.711.7

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Congleton620252001
Wilgrove520251995
Myrtle Grove420251966
Cokesbury420251996
Dismal Swamp420141993
Cherokee420162014
Speed320251967
Brevard320251975
California320131972
Rowland320241990
Reelsboro320191997
Biscoe320251992
Hulls Xroads320231997
Lloyd Xroads320191990
Cayton320232010
Kinston220241979
Mooresville220011968
Cherryville219661966
Mooresville 2220212006
California 2220252015
Newport220101996
Maple Hill220231995
Pinetops220241997
Rhems219921990
Sheffield220251996

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.