BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Missouri

All statesBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Missouri has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+93%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Missouri: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Missouri is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.6–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Missouri is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.6–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.11.52.7
20272.11.52.8
20282.11.52.8
20292.21.52.8
20302.21.62.8

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Hampton1420252015
Harrisonville1020232017
Osage Beach820251997
Sedalia820251991
Norborne720232006
Filley620251975
Bolckow619921967
Emden620242017
Whitewater520251996
Dover520242013
Lincoln520252018
Miller520252014
Graydon420251967
Ohio420251972
Frazier420241967
Cameron420251986
Milford420252015
Rueter 2420252023
Deventer320231974
Cassville320251967
Cascade320251976
Rockingham320221969
Stet319951974
Sticklervill320251971
Millwood320251999

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.