BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Arkansas has surged: up 215% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+215%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Arkansas: up 215% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Arkansas is projected to rise about 167% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.60–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+167%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±137.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Arkansas is projected to rise about 167% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.60–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.561.4
20261.00.571.5
20271.00.581.5
20281.00.591.5
20291.10.601.5

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell1320182010
Harrisburg620121975
Russell620212018
Augusta520011979
Eudora420161972
Ashdown420231973
Ozark Nf420051994
Saffell320181975
Stark320231967
Hickory Ridge320212010
England320222010
Lockesburg320192010
Old Milo220141975
Stamps220231974
Hughes220221973
Blakely219951979
Lurton220231970
Zion220241967
Centerton220242010
Dell220242010
Gillett220162011
Four Lakes220011995
Crowley'S Ridge220132013
Dry Fork220232003
Augusta 2220162002

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.