BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Virginia has surged: up 228% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+228%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Virginia: up 228% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.76 (95% range 0.43–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.76Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.76 (95% range 0.43–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.730.401.1
20260.740.411.1
20270.740.421.1
20280.750.421.1
20290.760.431.1

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wylliesburg520191971
Cornland520141978
Finchley520211996
David320011979
Quinby320241967
Gladys320241995
Dryden320241993
Douthat320041994
Ft Pickett N319951993
Chincoteag W320241998
Star Tannery220231980
Port Royal220171987
Natural Brid220241997
Big Island220241968
Carters Brdg220041966
Church Road220221970
White Stone220241968
Surry220241979
Irisburg220221987
Ringgold220241977
Branchville220241973
Pungo220221978
Moran220242001
Walkers220211992
Taylorstown120061976

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.