BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Virginia

All statesBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Virginia has surged: up 177% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+177%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Virginia: up 176% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Virginia is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.42–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.75Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Virginia is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.42–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.720.391.1
20270.730.401.1
20280.730.401.1
20290.740.411.1
20300.750.421.1

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wylliesburg520191971
Cornland520141978
Finchley520211996
Churchville320251966
David320011979
Dryden320241993
Douthat320041994
Ft Pickett N319951993
Chincoteag W320241998
Star Tannery220251980
Port Royal220171987
Natural Brid220251997
Big Island220241968
Carters Brdg220041966
Mannboro220251980
Surry220241979
Branchville220241973
Pungo220251978
Moran220242001
Gladys220251995
Walkers220211992
Taylorstown120061976
W Augusta120231974
Stanley120171977
Tryme120241975

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.