BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Minnesota has surged: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+146%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Minnesota: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Minnesota is projected to rise about 71% by 2030 — from 0.78 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.64–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+71%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.64–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Minnesota is projected to rise about 71% by 2030 — from 0.78 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.64–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.592.0
20271.30.602.0
20281.30.622.0
20291.30.632.0
20301.30.642.0

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitewater920001994
Chokio North720251993
Lake Bronson620111981
Oklee520211982
Le Roy520251993
Le Center520231996
Sherburne Nr520221990
Gluek420191980
Glenwood420191993
Wylie320241971
Tracy320252005
Chatfield 2320252003
Chatfield219991967
Huntley220251969
Ash Creek220251980
Lakeville220251973
Minnetonka220241972
Arlington220211988
Chokio220241971
Backus220251970
Edwards220241979
Glyndon220251980
Debs220251970
Waskish220211981
Grygla220171980

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.