BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in New Jersey has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

13×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in New Jersey: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in New Jersey is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.89–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.89–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in New Jersey is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.89–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.802.0
20261.40.822.0
20271.40.852.0
20281.40.872.0
20291.50.892.0

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clarksville619911973
High Point520231977
Greenwich420241981
Bloomsbury420241981
Dover420231988
Toms River320241966
Sandbrook320241976
Croton320031976
Roosevelt320221992
Pomona320231980
Pottersville220241981
Gillette220231988
Pedricktown 2220242013
Cape May Ch220012001
Woodbury Hgt120241987
Six Points120241991
Del Haven119911991
Albion120061972
Masonville119691969
Bennett Mill120001992
Holmansville119941970
New Bedford120151981
Robbinsville119731973
Hope119931975
Midvale120211979

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.