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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Kansas

All statesBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Kansas has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has risen sharply in Kansas: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Kansas is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.8–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Kansas is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.8–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.52.64.3
20273.52.74.3
20283.52.74.3
20293.62.74.4
20303.62.84.4

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Humboldt1120221969
Grantville820221969
Jewell820051967
Trading Post820252000
Dover720221967
Kanopolis720251967
Pittsburg720212000
Thrall619701967
Olsburg620252000
Damar620162000
Ashland520211970
Barclay520241967
Beloit520032000
Solomon520251982
Dalton420251968
Coldwater420221972
Albert420251976
Rock Creek420211972
Seneca420221967
Missler420191977
Reece420252000
Le Loup420212000
Susank420222000
St John320191967
Coats320251967

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.