BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Nebraska has surged: up 225% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+225%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Nebraska: up 225% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Nebraska is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.9–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Nebraska is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.9–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.41.73.1
20272.41.83.1
20282.51.83.1
20292.51.83.2
20302.51.93.2

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hendley920252018
Sparta820211967
Arthur620251996
Murray Lake620251989
Winside 2620222005
Culbertson520252018
Liberty 3520252009
Liberty 2520072004
Berwyn520101993
Winside420031968
Table420251995
Gordon420251982
Marsland420212018
Hay Springs420252018
Gretna320181972
Crescent Lk320251987
Bassett320212021
Julian220251969
Liberty220031968
Belvidere220251968
Seward220251967
Kenesaw220251973
Sumner220251978
Holbrook220251979
Bartley220251967

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.