BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in North Dakota has surged: up 208% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+208%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in North Dakota: up 208% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in North Dakota is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.7–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in North Dakota is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.7–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.62.44.9
20273.72.54.9
20283.82.55.0
20293.82.65.1
20303.92.75.1

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carpio1120231969
Loraine820191992
Zap620241975
Sheyenne Lk620251985
Danzig 2620252019
Cooperstown520251969
Gorham520251986
Walcott420211977
Emerado420251974
Buchanan420241968
Regan420231970
Abercrombie420121973
Denbigh420251968
Solen420252006
Forman320251968
Horsehead Lk320251980
Bowesmont320141968
Webster320241989
Cedar Creek320221999
Powers Lake320251989
Douglas Crk320251986
Turtle Mtns320251980
Lakota 2320252010
Edgeley220241980
Nash220171980

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.