BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in North Dakota has surged: up 210% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+210%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-tailed Hawk Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in North Dakota: up 210% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in North Dakota is projected to rise about 71% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.7–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+71%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in North Dakota is projected to rise about 71% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.7–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.72.54.9
20263.72.54.9
20273.82.65.0
20283.92.75.1
20293.92.75.1

Red-tailed Hawk Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carpio1120231969
Loraine820191992
Zap620241975
Sheyenne Lk620241985
Horsehead Lk520241980
Walcott420211977
Buchanan420241968
Niles420241989
Abercrombie420121973
Emerado320241974
Cooperstown320241969
Bowesmont320141968
Webster320241989
Stanley320241972
Denbigh320241968
Bowman320231988
Cedar Creek320221999
Golva320231980
Danzig 2320242019
Edgeley220241980
Wimbledon220241989
Nash220171980
Rolla220231969
Bentley220241988
Glen Ullin220221993

Red-tailed Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.