BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-60%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Virginia is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Virginia is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.61.016
20268.30.7616
20278.10.5016
20287.80.2315
20297.50.0015

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brandy Station4520242017
Great Falls4419781966
Gladys4020241994
Blacksburg4020241988
Quinby3720241966
Brodnax3720241973
Concord3520241967
Moran3420241996
David3320131968
Cape Charles3120181992
Ringgold2620241976
Newsoms2620241967
Irisburg2520241976
Cornland2520141975
Carters Brdg 22520242015
Star Tannery2420241977
Churchville2420241966
Newbern2419821968
Backbay2419741966
Stanley2320241966
Branchville2320241966
Taylorstown2220101967
Hall2220231967
Taylorstown 22220242012
Partlow2120151977

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.