BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Virginia is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 0.09–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Virginia is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 0.09–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.81.116
20278.50.8616
20288.30.6016
20298.00.3516
20307.80.0915

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blacksburg5320251988
Great Falls4419781966
Brodnax4320251973
Gladys4120251994
Concord3520241967
Star Tannery3320251977
David3320131968
Brandy Station3320252017
Quinby3220251966
Cape Charles3120181992
Taylorstown 23020252012
Churchville2820251966
Jerome2820251971
Newsoms2620241967
Cornland2520141975
Newbern2419821968
Sharps2420251967
Backbay2419741966
Stanley2320251966
Branchville2320241966
Carters Brdg 22320252015
Taylorstown2220101967
Partlow2120151977
Irisburg2120251976
Finchley2120211994

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.