BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Mississippi has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Mississippi: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Mississippi is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 6.4–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.4–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Mississippi is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 6.4–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025178.027
2026177.626
2027167.226
2028166.825
2029166.425

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt Carmel7120161974
Tupelo5220221966
Duffee5120081973
Poplarville4619781972
Okatibbee L.4620081995
Cybur4520191966
Olive Branch4320011966
Necaise3620221982
Lake3520241966
Waynesboro3520101966
Leaf River3420132008
Walthall3319871970
Tchula 23119941976
Olive Branch 23120222016
Macon3020241966
Amite River2820132008
Latimer 22820232021
Fontainbleau2719781966
Cockrum2520241966
Neely2520121974
Diberville2319871979
Latimer2220191988
Aberdeen2020241970
Commerce1919931966
Lucien1920131967

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.