BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in South Dakota has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-55%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in South Dakota: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.040.000.10
20240.040.000.10
20250.040.000.10
20260.040.000.10
20270.040.000.10

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lacreek620092007
Rosebud220071971
Rochford120112011
Maurine120021972
Reva120221999
Geddes120062006
Winner120081976
Rockyford119881988
Ardmore120191991
Crow Creek120062006
Promise119711971
Ottumwa119681968
Harding119811981

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.