BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Florida has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Florida: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Florida is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 11–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Florida is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 11–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025211329
2026211329
2027201228
2028191127
2029191127

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alturas14119861971
Broad Branch12020241967
St Lucie11920241987
Dale Mabry11419881966
Broward9719731966
Gardner9519991987
Kendall9319911987
Lovedale9320111987
Miller Xrds9020191987
Boca Raton8519941968
Redlands8520241994
Scottsmoor7620241968
Callahan7520241987
Ridge Harbor7020241991
Mabel6920111966
Kissimmee6920241987
New Hope6820112009
Betts6220241987
Pinetta6220241987
Myakka Head5920111966
Ft Waltn Bch5720111966
Oak Grove 25620242017
Sanderson 25420242022
Blountstown5320241966
Dowling Park5320231987

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.