BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Florida has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Florida: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Florida is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 10–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Florida is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 10–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026211329
2027201228
2028201228
2029191127
2030181026

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alturas14119861971
Broad Branch14020251967
St Lucie12020251987
Dale Mabry11419881966
Broward9719731966
Gardner9519991987
Kendall9319911987
Lovedale9320111987
Miller Xrds9020191987
Betts8920251987
Boca Raton8519941968
Redlands8520241994
Dowling Park7720251987
Callahan7520241987
Ridge Harbor7220251991
Hilliard7020251966
Blountstown6920251966
Mabel6920111966
New Hope6820112009
Scottsmoor6020251968
Myakka Head5920111966
Ft Waltn Bch5720111966
Oak Grove 25620252017
Sanderson 25420242022
Salvista5219791967

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.