BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Oklahoma has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Oklahoma: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 11–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 11–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191226
2026191226
2027191226
2028191226
2029181125

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pocola9520161992
Wainwright9220131992
Matoy8720001992
Colony6819951995
Sandbluff6819951992
Cookietown6120061968
Phillips5820081968
Indianola5720241967
Ardmore4220091967
Mill Creek3820181967
Duncan3620241986
Canadian3520171967
Welch3420241967
Wakita3420161967
Clear Lake2820241992
Holdenville2720241967
Loco2519851967
Elgin2520161994
Cooperton2520241992
Woodward2520241992
Verden2420171967
Keetonville2420221992
Ft Sill East2419941994
Peoria2320231967
Douglas2320221967

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.