BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Oklahoma has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-41%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 11–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 11–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026191226
2027191226
2028191226
2029191226
2030181126

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pocola9520161992
Wainwright9220131992
Colony6819951995
Cookietown6120061968
Indianola5120251967
Phillips4820251968
Sandbluff4420251992
Matoy4420251992
Cooperton4120251992
Duncan3920251986
Grimes3620251967
Canadian3520171967
Holdenville3520251967
Welch3420251967
Wakita3420161967
Noble2720251967
Loco2519851967
Ardmore2520251967
Elgin2520161994
Heyburn2520251992
Verden2420171967
Keetonville2420221992
Ft Sill East2419941994
Peoria2320231967
Bartlesville2320251967

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.