BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in North Carolina has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in North Carolina is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 11–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in North Carolina is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 11–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025211131
2026211131
2027211131
2028211131
2029211131

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Montague9220241990
Mooresville7020011966
Shallotte6519911966
Cypress Lakes6520242004
Rose6420241968
Genoa5620241990
Myrtle Grove5520241966
Cherryville5419681966
Cokesbury5420241996
Congleton5420242001
Dudley5120242002
Bethel4920242002
Wilgrove4720241995
Monticello4620241990
Ostwalt4620242012
Pinetops4520241997
Jamesville4420241983
Hamlet4420241995
Sheffield4420241991
Rowland4320241990
Speed4220241966
Climax4220241966
California 24120242014
Kinston3920241966
Rheasville3920172005

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.