BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in North Carolina has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in North Carolina is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 11–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in North Carolina is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 11–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026211131
2027211131
2028211131
2029211131
2030211131

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Montague7920251990
Cypress Lakes7620252004
Mooresville7020011966
Shallotte6519911966
Genoa5720251990
Myrtle Grove5520251966
Cherryville5419681966
Jamesville4920251983
Hamlet4620251995
Rose4520251968
Pinetops4520241997
Speed4420251966
Congleton4420252001
Rowland4320241990
Monticello4320251990
Dortches4220251990
Dudley4120252002
Kinston3920241966
Rheasville3920172005
Madison3819851966
Cypress Cr3820221990
Jarvisburg3819991992
Belgrade3720192002
Wilgrove3620251995
Raeford3620251990

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.