BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in New Mexico has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-36%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in New Mexico is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 18–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in New Mexico is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 18–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026301841
2027301841
2028301841
2029301841
2030301841

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lakewood14320211980
Sabinoso13020211980
Mountainair11520241992
Capitan Mtn.11520171993
Queen7520211993
Roswell6220251968
Variadero6220221994
Bitter Lake6120251994
Quemado5919971992
Corona East5519951993
Pastura5020251993
Claunch 24920252001
San Antonio4819771974
Torreon4620251975
Salt Lake 24520252002
Laborcita 24220252022
Nageesi3820251968
Horse Mtn3720241968
Carrizozo3720251968
Deming3519751968
Salt Lake3520011999
Pinon3320241992
Pecos3220171973
Hobbs3120251994
Laborcita3020191992

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.