BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Missouri has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-61%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Missouri: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Missouri is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.31–9.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.31–9.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Missouri is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.31–9.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.30.859.8
20265.20.719.6
20275.00.589.5
20284.90.459.4
20294.80.319.2

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cameron2520231986
Gildehouse2419891978
Ohio2320241972
Whitewater2020241996
Kennett2020242015
Kingsville1720241992
Milford1720242015
Cole Camp1519901971
West Plains1520242014
Cp Girardeau1420241967
Pulaski1320241974
Cassville1320241967
Miller1320242014
Blodgett1320242013
Graydon1220241967
Filley1220241975
Sni Mills1219901967
Hayti1220212016
Handley1120231967
Crane1120241994
Moselle1120242000
Reeds1020231974
Stet1019951972
Barks1020241994
Osage Beach1020241997

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.