BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Missouri has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-58%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Missouri: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Missouri is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 0.27–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Missouri is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 0.27–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.20.819.7
20275.10.689.5
20285.00.549.4
20294.80.419.3
20304.70.279.1

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gildehouse2419891978
Cp Girardeau2120251967
Graydon2120251967
Akers2020251967
Whitewater1920251996
Miller1720252014
Kennett1720252015
Deventer1620251967
Reeds1520251974
Cole Camp1519901971
Kingsville1520251992
Blodgett1520252013
Cassville1420251967
Filley1420251975
Moselle1420252000
House Springs1320252017
Sni Mills1219901967
Eugene1220252013
Hayti1220212016
Sweden1120251968
Osage Beach1120251997
Harrisonville1120252017
Stet1019951972
Ohio920251972
Milford920252015

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.