BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in South Carolina has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in South Carolina is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 9.5–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.5–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in South Carolina is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 9.5–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191127
2026181026
2027181026
2028189.826
2029189.526

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pendleton5219761966
Holly Hill5120241972
Boiling Spgs5019791967
Anderson4720181977
Rome4320241967
Campobello4020242010
New Holland3920241967
New Ellenton3920242010
Pinewood3820191998
Red Bluff3820241996
Dillon3720211970
Ward3620212017
Walterboro3520171970
Foreston3420211966
Owings3320041992
Johns Isle3119791966
Green Sea3020242010
Coward2920241966
Bishopville2920241970
Blacksburg2920131998
Kingstree2820102010
Owings 22820242005
Wagener2520241966
Barton Creek2520221967
Carvers Bay2520121998

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.