BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in South Carolina has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in South Carolina is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 9.7–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.7–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in South Carolina is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 9.7–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026191127
2027191027
2028181027
2029189.926
2030189.726

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coward8020251966
Bishopville7820251970
New Holland5420251967
Pendleton5219761966
Ward5120252017
Boiling Spgs5019791967
Anderson4720181977
Rome4620251967
Red Bluff4520251996
Campobello4020252010
Pinewood3820191998
Dillon3720211970
New Ellenton3720252010
Holly Hill3520251972
Owings3320041992
Johns Isle3119791966
Blacksburg2920131998
Owings 22920252005
Kingstree2820102010
Nixville2720251998
Barton Creek2520221967
Carvers Bay2520121998
Landrum2419921972
Joanna2420251999
Foreston2320251966

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.