BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Vermont has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-40%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Vermont is projected to rise about 375% by 2027 — from 0.05 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±439.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+375%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±439.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Vermont is projected to rise about 375% by 2027 — from 0.05 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±439.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.250.000.74
20240.250.000.74
20250.250.000.74
20260.250.000.74
20270.250.000.75

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Colchester1320011986
Shaftsbury720041969
S Reading220031985
Post Mills220011980
East Haven219881980
Marlboro119951989
North Pownal119931972
Gaysville119881988
S Wallingfrd119961984
W Rutland120221993
St Johnsbury120131974
Middlesex119751975
Hardwick119901990
Greensboro119841984
Fletcher120001989
Waterville119741974
Hinesburg119931978
Grand Isle119941989
Bristol120122012

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.