BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Kentucky has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 4.5–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 4.5–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025124.919
2026124.819
2027124.719
2028124.619
2029114.518

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Keysburg2820241968
Cedar Grove2820241966
Sulphur Lick2620241966
Hudson2420241966
Bays Fork2420191999
Iron Bridge2319981966
Merrimac2320241967
Goshen2219991966
Hodgenville 22020232008
Sunnybrook1820221968
Boxville1819831966
Lovelacevile1720241967
Plum1620241966
Kings Mtn1520241966
Mcbrayer1520241966
Hodgenville1520031969
Dixie1520191967
Glencoe1520221966
Kehoe1419921968
Canton1320241967
Dixon1320242005
Eastview1320241967
Lebanon Junction1320242000
Riverqueen1220242007
Joy1220231966

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.