BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Kentucky has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-39%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 4.5–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 4.5–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026125.019
2027124.919
2028124.719
2029124.618
2030114.518

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shiloh3220251967
Cedar Grove2820251966
Sulphur Lick2620241966
Hudson2620251966
Bays Fork2420191999
Iron Bridge2319981966
Merrimac2320241967
Goshen2219991966
Lovelacevile2020251967
Kings Mtn2020251966
Hodgenville 22020232008
Lebanon Junction2020252000
Sewell Shop1920251966
Sunnybrook1820221968
Mcbrayer1820251966
Boxville1819831966
Keysburg1620251968
Hodgenville1520031969
Dixie1520191967
Glencoe1520221966
Riverqueen1420252007
Kehoe1419921968
Dixon1320242005
Canton1220251967
Joy1220231966

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.