BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Colorado

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Colorado has surged: up 207% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+207%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has surged in Colorado: up 207% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.2 (95% range 1.8–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.2 (95% range 1.8–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.11.76.5
20264.11.76.6
20274.21.76.6
20284.21.86.6
20294.21.86.7

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trinchera14120221990
Crowley9120241989
Ninaview8420241994
Villegreen4420241988
Walsenburg3920241994
Cone Mtn2420241988
Doyle Bridge 22020231998
Mica Butte1919871968
Doyle Bridge1819971992
Ellicott1720241994
Cokedale1420241996
Timpas1320191995
Rush1120241983
Ludlow1020161998
Flagler820242000
Animas 2820212005
Abarr720241968
Gilpin720241970
Two Buttes720151973
Campo720191988
Neegrande720241994
Pritchett720241995
Cortez620081988
Kirk620231999
Haswell620241993

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.