BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Nevada has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+61%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has risen sharply in Nevada: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Nevada is projected to rise about 111% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+111%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±126.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Nevada is projected to rise about 111% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.30.006.8
20273.30.006.8
20283.30.006.9
20293.40.006.9
20303.40.006.9

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ruby Valley 21420212009
Frenchman1219781977
Alamo1219731968
Caliente920251988
Desert Nwr820241990
Beatty720241989
Ash Meadows620251993
Jean Lake620101973
Toiyabe Nf520242002
Fallon520251997
Darroughs Hot Spgs420242007
Cortez320241969
Majors Place320251990
Willis320251988
Minerva320241988
Silver Peak320062006
Hiko320251968
Sand Pass220221993
Walker Can220222021
Mizpah220171993
Gardnerville220042004
Val Of Fire220251985
Virgin Creek220152006
Chimney Res.220232007
Gardnerville 2220242014

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.