BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Alabama has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Alabama is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 18–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Alabama is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 18–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025261933
2026261932
2027251932
2028251832
2029251831

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Foley11219841966
Brantley9620241966
Georgetown8220241994
Birmingham7819951969
Grangeburg7220241966
St. Elmo6320211996
Perdido6120242021
Alabama Pt5920031966
Newton5820241966
Rock Chapel5820241995
Alabama Pt 25820192004
Brundidge5720211966
Eufaula5620241996
Elamville5020241984
Hillsboro4919961966
Elberta4820221986
Bay Minette4820241996
St Florian4620241967
Mt. Gilead4620241993
Whitehall4320241983
Fairview4220241989
Bon Secour4220231993
Talladega4120241996
Trade4020241966
Billingsley4020221966

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.