BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Alabama has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Alabama is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 18–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Alabama is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 18–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026261933
2027261932
2028251932
2029251832
2030251831

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Foley11219841966
Georgetown9720251994
Brantley9420251966
Birmingham7819951969
Bay Minette7520251996
Grangeburg7220241966
St. Elmo6620251996
Alabama Pt5920031966
Newton5820241966
Rock Chapel5820241995
Alabama Pt 25820192004
Brundidge5720211966
Harrell5620251968
Eufaula5620241996
St Florian5420251967
Hillsboro4919961966
Elberta4820221986
Perdido4420252021
Warrior Std4320251966
Bon Secour4220231993
Mt. Gilead4120251993
Trade4020241966
Pine Grove4020251966
Dauphin Is 24020191991
Drummond4020242001

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.