BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Michigan has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-82%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has collapsed in Michigan: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±144.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.13
20260.000.000.13
20270.000.000.13
20280.000.000.13
20290.000.000.13

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Riggsville220181993
Adrian220172011
Hungerford120082008
Bootjack119921992
Allegan Wma120131993
Shingleton120062006
Barry S.G.A.120012001
Bear Lake120191969
Scottville119931984
Lawrence120091970
New Troy119761971
Pleasant Val119901990
Belding119931992
Galesburg120242002
Howardsville120071971
Monterey120091993
Remus120022001
Mottville120081978
Walloon Lake119871987
Skeels119891989
Prattville119871987
Pettysville119791979
Deckerville119831983
Mayfield120052002

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.