BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in New York has surged: up 303% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+303%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has surged in New York: up 303% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 0.60–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 0.60–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.583.4
20272.00.593.5
20282.00.593.5
20292.00.603.5
20302.00.603.5

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jones Beach3420131966
Macdougall2120251974
Manorville1520241967
Highland1520221967
Rifton1319861968
Churchville1320251981
Orleans1220251972
Westhampton1120241968
Byron1020251996
Huntington920231971
Somers919771970
Ballston Lk919831969
E Youngstown920251975
Argyle920241971
Orange Lake819921987
Hauppauge720181966
North Easton720251972
Warwick519741968
Mt Hope520101967
Naples520251972
Ghent320251966
Dryden320241978
Canadice L320251991
Hamburg319991999
St Johnsburg320251984

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.