BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in New York has surged: up 345% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+345%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has surged in New York: up 345% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in New York is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.56–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in New York is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.56–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.543.4
20262.00.553.4
20272.00.553.4
20282.00.563.4
20292.00.563.4

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jones Beach3420131966
Orleans1920241972
Manorville1520241967
Highland1520221967
Rifton1319861968
Westhampton1120241968
Huntington920231971
Somers919771970
Ballston Lk919831969
Argyle920241971
Byron820241996
Churchville820241981
Naples820241972
Orange Lake819921987
Hauppauge720181966
Ghent720241966
E Youngstown720231975
Warwick519741968
Mt Hope520101967
Macdougall520241974
Rushville520241995
Mt Morris520122009
Dryden320241978
Hamburg319991999
Penfield320241971

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.