BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Maryland

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Maryland has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Maryland. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Maryland is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 13–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Maryland is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 13–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026191423
2027181423
2028181423
2029181423
2030181322

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Earlton6020242014
Fair Hill5619961992
Williamsport5420251966
Ijamsville5420251986
Bald Friar5119961992
Olney4920251966
Madonna4920222009
Emmitsburg4320251966
Largo4319811966
Upper Xrds4020081966
Grove Neck4019961992
Forest Grove3720232011
Wheaton3720251990
Eklo3620181966
Jones3619941966
Pt Republic3619891966
Cheltenham3420041966
Silver Spg3319891966
Cokesbury3220251966
Warfieldsbrg3120251966
Fowblesburg3020171966
Harmony3020171966
Bachman Mill2920251966
Tall Timbers2820141966
Fruitland2819981966

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.