BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Arizona has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-33%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Arizona is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 1.3–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Arizona is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 1.3–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025111.621
2026111.621
2027111.521
2028111.421
2029111.321

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull Valley7420241996
Clay Spring7420241988
Sunizona 25320242001
Mt Trumbull5219931974
Zeniff5219841968
Ajo 24520192009
Bartlett Res4220241992
Seligman3720241991
Toroweap2820241994
Dragoon2820091993
House Rock2720221968
Yampai2619771969
Redington2520231993
Mcneal2220241992
Rose Wells2019781968
Oraibi2020221991
Peña Blanca2020241975
Forest Lakes2020241992
Alamo Res.1920231992
Hope 21920192014
Florence1819881971
Carr Mtn1720241985
Peach Spring1620241992
Portal1620241976
San Simon1520241969

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.