BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Mockingbird Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Mockingbird Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.0–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.0–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.0–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025148.819
2026148.619
2027148.419
2028138.219
2029138.019

Northern Mockingbird Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Saffell4320191967
Coal Hill4120231967
Kelso3620162010
Avoca3520241967
Russell3020212010
Massard2920221967
Farwell2720182010
Lockesburg2720192010
Ravenden Springs2620152010
England2620242010
Centerton2320242010
Whitton2219911967
Harrisburg2120191967
Poyen2020071967
Augusta 22020162002
Fulton1920241967
Old Milo1820241967
Stamps1820241967
Crows1819911967
Havana1820212010
Springhill1820222010
Hope1720241967
Blakely1519991968
Poyen 21520242008
Ashdown1420231967

Northern Mockingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.